Far fetched?
The failure of Raul Castro to take the stage in any capacity is only fueling the already rampant speculation about what is really going on at the highest levels of the Cuban government. I was pondering the reasons why Raul hasn't appeared and reflecting on a call I got last night from a friend. He said, he had heard that fidel was dead or incapacitated and that other Cuban officials had kidnapped or detained raul. The one thing that doesn't ring true about that scenario is that if it were true, wouldn't those holding raul (and thus the power) announce it?
My mind started wandering however and I began to think of reasons that these Generals and Bureaucrats might have to arrest raul, besides personal ambition (which is a strong enough motivator, I guess). And in analyzing the problem I came up with a scenario which sounds far fetched, but everything else that is happening is just as equally far fetched.
We know that fidel castro has always wanted a direct confrontation with the U.S., it's literally his death wish. But we also know that fidel is a coward who runs at the first sound of gunfire. Huber Matos (a former comandante under fidel whos served 20 years in prison when he broke with the dictator) was on TV the other night explaining how fidel would run for cover any time he heard an airplane during the insurrection in the late 50s. fidel also miraculously survived the Moncada attack and the landing of the Granma. Both of those events led to the death of many of castro's men. It has been said the always found a way to stay out of the crossfire, always cautious to not put himself in harm's way. But fidel has never had a problem with sending others in harm's way. He is reported to have told the Cuban forces in Grenada to fight to the death against the invasion ordered by President Ronald Reagan. There are countless examples where he has asked others to die for him and his cursed Revolution.
So is it possible that castro, who loves his own life but does not value the lives of his subordinates, soldiers and citizens, devised a doomsday scenario in advance of his death or incapacitation? Could there be a secret plan for Raul to carry out an insane attack against the United States? Think about it. fidel has never been a dummy. He knows/knew that fidelismo would be dead before his body even got cold. That his Revolution would eventually disappear like a sandcastle under the tide of progress. His motivations have always been personal. He knows that regardless of the propaganda the Cuban people are much worse off today than they were 47 years ago. His only legacy would be that of a long-ago tyrant. But what if he could do what so many other countries wish they could do, launch a surprise attack against the "imperialist" United States in an effort to bring about a world conflagration that could end up in a multi-front war?
This is what I am theorizing. fidel left orders that should he die or become incapacitated that the dutiful raul would carry out the doomsday plan. raul, loyal to the end, would then order his generals to implement the plan laid out well in advance by fidel himself. When confronted with this plan, the generals say collectively to themselves "este hombre está loco?" (is this man crazy?) and instinctively arrest him until they could figure out what to do.
While this is a low probability scenario, it would explain a lot. And it would be, as I demonstrated, totally within the character of fidel to devise and raul to carry out such a plan.
Thoughts? Comments?
4 comments:
I wouldn't put anything past this madman. You're absolutely right about him wanting a confrontation with the U.S.--without the U.S. as his enemy, what would he have to discuss? His M.O. would fall through like quicksand.
I hadn't considered the prospect of Raul being kidnapped, but it did run through my mind that he might be dead or incapacitated as well. There has to be an internal power struggle going on.
Great website, by the way!
An attack to USA from Cuba is possible. Fidel, if he is able, or Raul, if Fidel is unable, would start a nationwide people mobilization with the pretext of and imminent invasion by the "Imperialists". That will give one or the other the reason for for a preemtive strike.
Castro asked Nikita Kruschev for a nuclear attack to the USA during the October crisis, with the same excuse, an imminent attack of the USA against Cuba.
Let's keep in mind Castro's aggressive remark in his speech at Teheran University a few years ago: "The peoples and governments of Cuba and Iran can bring the United States to its knees"
Weapon? A "dirty" bomb provided by Iran, or a biological device.
I'd say no. Raul is a bigger coward than Fidel, and he has stashed away millions in China.
There is an internal power struggle going on.
This is an intriguing idea, especially in light of the Iran connection. Iran uses Lebanon/hezbalah as agents to inflict war on Irael. They could certainly use Cuba as an agent to attack the nearby US. But why wait for castro's death? I think Iran would wish to have the attack take place on their terms/timing. And what would be in it for Cuba's leaders? Maybe a sh__load of money and safe haven in Iran? Interesting and scary.
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