Sunday, January 27, 2008

It's a two man race.

Technically there are 5 candidates still seeking the Republican nomination. They are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul. But in reality 3 of these are dead men walking.

Mike Huckabee was able to woo social conservatives in Iowa and mobilize them to come out and caucus for him. In the process he knocked Fred Thompson out of contention in South Carolina. Mike Huckabee will not finish better than third in any of the major contests left. His populist rhetoric and stand-up comedy act have worn out their welcome.

Rudy Giuliani read the tea leaves correctly when he stopped campaigning in New Hampshire and migrated south for the winter. The problem for Rudy is that he was NEVER going to get the nomination as a pro-choice candidate in the pro-life party.

Ron Paul has raised a lot of money on the internet and given a lot of people a voice in the political process. Unfortunately a lot of those people are 9/11 truthers, white supremacists and ignorant college students who were probably wearing Che Guevara t-shirts this time last year.

That leaves the two heavyweights left to duke it out for the proverbial 12 rounds: Mitt and McCain. Though neither of these guys is a darling of the GOP, the thought leaders of the party are backing Romney while the elected politicians are backing McCain. For example, Rush Limbaugh, who hasn't officially endorsed anyone, has pretty much bashed McCain and Huckabee. The same with Mark Levin. The contributors at National Review Online all seem to be for Romney at this point. Meanwhile McCain has gotten endorsements in Florida from Senator Mel Martinez and Governor Charlie Crist.

So there you have it. With the Florida primary coming up it looks like a vote for anyone other than McCain or Romney will be a vote for what at best will be a third place finisher. A 4th place finish by Huckabee and a third place finish for Giuliani will pretty much mean the end of the road for both of them. Romney just needs to finish a strong second. He can then go on network TV in the week leading up to Super Tuesday.

7 comments:

Fantomas said...

"That leaves the two heavyweights left to duke it out for the proverbial 12 rounds"

Mitt and McCain are not heavyweigths in my book tocayo

Son dos mediocres candidatos overall..

la ley de probabilidades lo dice y esta claro. Despues de ocho años de continuismo ahora les toca a los Democratas..

La economia y el desastre de Iraq no beneficiaran a los Republicanos

Henry Gomez said...

Heavyweight is a relative term. We haven't had a really good heavyweight in boxing since Tyson went downhill after losing to Buster Douglas, yet there have been many heavyweights.


I reject your simplistic assumption that it's the Democrats' "turn".

And I also reject you characterization of the war in Iraq. We eliminated Sadam, liberated a country and by the way we are fighting Al Qaeda on a faraway battle field instead of on the streets of America.

Fantomas said...

Cuando dije desastre de Iraq, I did not imply it was not a neccesary war. Lo que digo ahora es que hay que acabarla as soon as possible , bring the troops home and let the Iraques poner los muertos. Podemos ayudar con logistica y demas but from the outside.

Sabes cuanto se pudiera hacer en este pais con los billones de dolares gastados en Iraq...Mucho , mucho, ejemplo... se podria ayudar a mucha gente que no pierda sus casas ( foreclosure) , more vet benefits, the homeles, the uninsured etc

Henry Gomez said...

Every day we're in Iraq we are capturing and killing al Qaeda fighters. I think that's a pretty good thing to spend money on.

Fantomas said...

Henry el worldwide al qaeda nunca sera defeated totally ..Esa gente se reproducen como los ratones. Israel no ha podido con los palestinos hace mas de 40 años pelean sin ponerse de acuerdo. Nuestros recursos no pueden ser gastados asi tan facil . espero que el proximo presidente se de cuenta de esto y admisnistre mejor

Henry Gomez said...

Perhaps you're not understanding me. Al Qaeda has an army of people that want to kill Americans. We created a new battleground on the other side of the ocean where the only Americans get in harms way are people that volunteered. We created a focus of operations far from here. Get it? Al Qaeda is sending its men to Iraq to fight our soldiers rather than here to blow up shopping malls. Get it?

Fantomas said...

are you on blogtalk?

no se escucha nada